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Tuesday, September 13, 2011

College Football: Conference Realignment Creating Messy Landscape

Nobody ever knows what the future holds, whether it be with relationships, jobs, or sporadic opportunities that will undoubtedly present themselves throughout life. College football's conference expansion is no different from this. By now everybody on the planet has heard about Texas A&M announcing that they are leaving the Big 12 and heading to the SEC and Oklahoma possibly departing for the PAC-12. Combine these two changes with the flurry of moves made last year and suddenly the world of College Football has taken on a life it never had in the past. But with the moves in the works, certain conferences, such as the Big 12, ACC, and Big East, are being left in the dust. If NCAA officials do not step in soon, the league that we know and watch so faithfully every Saturday morning will be a thing of the past.
At this point in time, there is no conceivable way for conferences to hold on to their schools when the big boys come calling. Teams like the Missouri Tigers and the Texas Longhorns are going to be left out to dry in the Big 12 while a number of teams are going to be stuck in meaningless conferences. Among these schools left out to dry are the Pittsburgh Panthers, the West Virginia Mountaineers, the Virginia Tech Hokies, and the three most notable programs, the Florida State Seminoles, TCU Horned Frogs, and Boise State Broncos.
Some of these schools will have no problem finding a home. Texas should get an offer from every remaining major conference. Assuming West Virginia attempts to leave the Big East, them and Missouri would be in similar positions with above average programs in not only football but basketball as well. Florida State should be in good shape with a historic football program and a decent basketball program.
TCU is in perhaps the worst shape of all the aforementioned schools. They have not even played their first conference game as a member of the Big East and there is already so much conference commotion. They could very easily find themselves in a situation similar to what they had as a member of the Mountain West if the big time football programs leave. They would find themselves not able to get into a BCS National Championship game because they would not play a tough enough schedule. To make matters worse, they would need the conference to completely fold in order to leave because the penalty would be too steep. Chances of that happening are slim to none because the Big East is by far the best basketball conference in the country and should stay together solely for that reason.
Boise State is in serious trouble too. The PAC-12 has gone on record saying that they will not take Boise State because of the school's academic reputation. The Broncos do not have another sport that they are competitive in. They really only bring football to the table and they might be able to join the Big 10 but even that would be a long shot.
All in all, here's my prediction. The NCAA will move to four main conferences. The PAC-12 will become the PAC-16 and consist of USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, California, Stanford, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech. The SEC will carry 16 teams: Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Texas A&M, Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida State, Miami, and Georgia Tech. Already holding Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Penn State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa, the Big 10 will add Missouri, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and Boise State. The fourth, shockingly, will be the Big East. In the mess they still lose Pittsburgh and West Virginia and remain the weakest of the four big conferences, but they will pull in enough help to remain relevant. Their membership will be comprised of Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Maryland, Clemson, TCU, Baylor, Boston College, and... wait for it... Notre Dame.
This entire process is a mess and these are only my thoughts on paper but right now, the landscape is as muggy as it gets. This could all happen or none of it could happen. Only time will tell.

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